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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.